Weekly Global Update for December 3, 2015

Third Quarter Global Electronic Supply Chain Growth by Sector

With all of the major companies in our survey (except Medtronic) having now reported their CY3Q’15 financials, here are the results:

U.S. denominated 3Q’15 global electronic equipment growth was minus 3.8% (Chart 1) when calculated at fluctuating exchange rates.

Currency exchange rates had a major impact as growth at constant 2014 exchange was plus 3% versus almost minus 4% at fluctuating exchange when non-dollar currencies were converted to strong dollars (Chart 2).

Historical revenues by major electronic equipment product group are given in Chart 3.

Chart 4 shows 3Q’15 versus 3Q’14 growth by sector of the global electronic supply chain. Note that these growth values are at fluctuating exchange.

Historical consolidated revenues, net income and inventory data for some key product groups are as follows: Each chart shows the companies used in the consolidation. All U.S. dollar consolidations are at fluctuating exchange rates.

• Automotive equipment (Chart 5)
• Military equipment (Chart 6)
• Instrument and control equipment (Chart 7)
• Medical equipment (Chart 8). Note that Medtronic quarterly results not available until December 3, 2015
• Communication equipment (Chart 9).
• Datacom (Internet) equipment (Chart 10)
• Computer equipment (Chart 11)
• Data storage equipment (Chart 12)
• Semiconductor fab, test and measurement equipment (Chart 13)
• Passive components (Chart 14)
• 52 Global EMS and ODM companies (Chart 15)
• Large U.S. EMS companies (Chart 16)

Source: Company financial reports consolidated and analyzed by Custer Consulting Group

November “Flash” Manufacturing PMI Data

Markit Economics released preliminary November PMI leading indicator data for the USA, Japan, the Eurozone, Germany and France. All countries’ manufacturing sectors were in growth territory (Chart 17).

Further Comments:

U.S. PMI - Domestic Growth Continues (Chart 18)

Markit Economics “flash” November PMI shows the U.S. manufacturing sector to be on a continuous expansion since 2009. Although the rate of this domestic manufacturing expansion has recently slowed, the PMI remains well above 50, the demarcation between growth and contraction.

Eurozone Manufacturing Sector Growth Accelerates (Chart 19)M

Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said: “The PMI shows a welcome acceleration of eurozone growth, putting the region on course for one of its best quarterly performances over the past 4 1/2 years. The data are signaling GDP growth of 0.4% in the closing quarter of the year, with 0.5% in sight if we get even just a modest uptick in December. “The improved performance in terms of economic growth and job creation seen in November are all the more impressive given last weekend’s tragic events in Paris, which subdued economic activity in France–especially in the service sector. “However, with recent comments from ECB chief Mario Draghi highlighting how the central bank remains disappointed with the strength of the upturn at this stage of the recovery, November’s slightly improved PMI reading will no doubt do little to dissuade policymakers that more needs to be done at their December meeting to ensure stronger and more sustainable growth.”

Japan Production Increases at Sharpest Pace since March 2014 (Chart 20)

Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Amy Brownbill, Economist at Markit said: “Latest survey data pointed to a substantial improvement in operating conditions at Japanese manufacturers.

Growth in production accelerated to the sharpest since March 2014, while new orders increased at a marked rate. Meanwhile, international demand rose sharply as growth in new export orders picked up to a 5-month high. Subsequently, both buying activity and employment rose during the month, with both expanding at the fastest rates in over 1 1/2 years.

Input prices rose at the fastest rate in four months, although inflation remained historically muted.

Source: www.markiteconomics.com

October U.S. Electronic Equipment Shipments, Orders and Inventories

The U.S. Department of Commerce just released its October “Durable Goods” report with preliminary data for the domestic electronic supply chain.

• Electronic equipment book/bill remained in expansion territory with a 3 month average value of 1.024 (Chart 21)
• Electronic equipment shipment growth accelerated (comparing Aug-Oct 2015 versus Aug-Oct 2014) while order growth remained slightly in positive territory (3/12 > 1). Chart 22
• In dollar terms equipment orders grew sequentially from September while shipments were flat (Chart 23).
• Equipment inventories relative to orders declined to their lowest level since 2008 (Chart 24).
• Aircraft shipments were sequentially flat compared to September (Chart 25).
• Defense capital goods orders and shipments increased (Chart 26).

Source: www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/

U.S. 3Q’15 GDP Revised to 2.1% from 1.5% (Chart 27)

The U.S. economy expanded at a faster pace than initially estimated in the third quarter as the domestic economy appears likely to close out 2015 with modest growth.

Source: www.bea.gov/national/